If the current growth rate of illegal migration continues—from approximately 14,000 arrivals in 2024 to an estimated 20,000 in 2025—and if per-person costs remain between $10,000 and $17,000, the smuggling economy could reach $200 to $340 million in gross revenue.
Author’s own illustration
Three years of construction work in Dhaka had accumulated to $6,500 in savings when the dalal (local broker) approached with a proposition that seemed almost too good to refuse. The route appeared straightforward: Bangladesh through Saudi Arabia to Libya, then a brief Mediterranean crossing to Italian shores, where monthly earnings could exceed what he made annually.
“From Bangladesh through Saudi Arabia to Libya, then from Libya attempting the boat crossing to Greece or Italy,” he recounted months later, describing what he believed would be a well-established pathway used by thousands before him.
However, upon reaching Libya, reality shifted dramatically. He spent three weeks in what smugglers called a “game house”—a holding facility where two hundred migrants waited for weather conditions and boat availability.
The promised boat finally arrived at night, overcrowded beyond any safety margin, with nearly one hundred and fifty people packed into a vessel designed for perhaps forty.
“We went with the hope of reaching Italy for a better future,” he said, remembering the moment the engine started and the Libyan coast began receding. “The boat ran for only twenty minutes before the coast guard caught us.”
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Originally published at GlobalVoices on June 6, 2026.
